Pascal Michaillat (UCSC) and Emmanuel Saez (UC Berkeley) say 40% probability, yes. From the abstract to the paper: To answer this question, we develop a new Sahm-type recession indicator that combines vacancy and unemployment data. The indicator is the minimum of the Sahm indicator— the difference between the 3-month trailing average of the unemployment rate and its minimum over the past 12 months—and a similar indicator constructed with the vacancy rate—the difference between the 3-month trailing average of the vacancy rate and its maximum over the past 12 months. We then propose a two-sided recession rule